Fitch predicts 2027 inflation will hit 11.3%
Fitch Solutions projects Ghana's average inflation to rise to 11.3% in 2027, up from 4.7% in 2026, driven by exchange rate shifts, money supply growth and El Niño effects.
Fitch Solutions, a UK-based research firm, projects that Ghana's average inflation will climb to 11.3% in 2027, compared with 4.7% recorded in 2026. The forecast attributes the rise to fading exchange‑rate support, modest fiscal loosening and a sharp increase in money supply growth. In the second quarter of 2026, broad money supply growth outpaced nominal GDP growth by 17.1 percentage points, a gap that typically fuels price pressures.
The firm also notes that the current El Niño event, expected to peak toward the end of 2026, is already lifting global food prices. This will add imported inflationary pressure to Ghana during 2027, especially through higher food and energy costs.
When inflation breaches the 10% threshold in the second quarter of 2027, Fitch expects the Bank of Ghana to begin tightening monetary policy. It forecasts a cumulative increase of 200 basis points in the policy rate by the end of the year. An escalation of tensions in the Middle East could force the central bank to tighten earlier, possibly as soon as November 2026, or to deliver more than the projected 200‑basis‑point hike.
The current‑account surplus is expected to narrow from 7.9% of GDP in 2026 to 5.3% in 2027. This contraction reflects a modest decline in gold prices, from $4,400 per ounce to $4,200 per ounce, and a projected 9.1% drop in cocoa production caused by El Niño‑related weather disruptions.
Although the Bank of Ghana has set an ambitious target of maintaining 15 months of import cover by 2028, Fitch views this goal as unlikely to be met. Consequently, policymakers are likely to pursue a positive real interest rate to attract portfolio investment inflows.
Fitch maintains its policy‑rate projection at 14% by December 2026. The Bank of Ghana's Monetary Policy Committee, including Governor Addison and all members, voted to keep the rate unchanged at 14%. This decision comes amid rising concerns over fiscal deficits, external debt sustainability and the need to safeguard the cedi, which is currently trading around GH¢11.90 against the dollar in forex bureaus.
